1.0MRKT Insights - Football Consultancy Serviceshttps://mrktinsights.comrich600338<blockquote class="wp-embedded-content" data-secret="usn5JqxPrK"><a href="https://mrktinsights.com/index.php/2020/06/14/mind-the-gap/">Mind the gap</a></blockquote><iframe sandbox="allow-scripts" security="restricted" src="https://mrktinsights.com/index.php/2020/06/14/mind-the-gap/embed/#?secret=usn5JqxPrK" width="600" height="338" title="“Mind the gap” — MRKT Insights - Football Consultancy Services" data-secret="usn5JqxPrK" frameborder="0" marginwidth="0" marginheight="0" scrolling="no" class="wp-embedded-content"></iframe><script type="text/javascript"> /* <![CDATA[ */ /** * WordPress inline HTML embed * * @since 4.4.0 * @output wp-includes/js/wp-embed.js * * Single line comments should not be used since they will break * the script when inlined in get_post_embed_html(), specifically * when the comments are not stripped out due to SCRIPT_DEBUG * being turned on. */ (function ( window, document ) { 'use strict'; /* Abort for ancient browsers. */ if ( ! document.querySelector || ! window.addEventListener || typeof URL === 'undefined' ) { return; } /** @namespace wp */ window.wp = window.wp || {}; /* Abort if script was already executed. */ if ( !! window.wp.receiveEmbedMessage ) { return; } /** * Receive embed message. * * @param {MessageEvent} e */ window.wp.receiveEmbedMessage = function( e ) { var data = e.data; /* Verify shape of message. */ if ( ! 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It is common sense that a player playing in the third tier of Belgian football will not necessarily be able to reproduce the same levels of dominance in the Spanish Primera Division. The intention behind researching performance at different levels of the game then is to attempt to reduce risk and give greater confidence to a scout’s assertions on a player, or the predictive data that is already within the recruitment system. There are an almost infinite number of factors within whether a player might be able to perform well at a higher level that it can never be an exact science. However, the more research that is undertaken should ultimately reduce the risks involved. To begin with the research is centred around understanding the step-up in the English leagues. There is available data down through the league system within England going back a few years now and that was a key consideration. Also, before diving into individual player data it made sense to try to understand how teams fared across the different levels of the league system to calculate some baseline “quality gaps” between the divisions. These can then be used in future assessments of individual players to understand their own performances within a specific context. Obviously, football works on a hierarchical system, and England is no different. The team who gains the most points in a season will be promoted to the next tier in the league system. They will often be accompanied by at least one other team who is promoted by other methods across the English football pyramid. It then stands to reason that a side that achieves promotion will then be competing alongside teams that are of a higher level the following year. Therefore, if you compare performance data across the two seasons you would expect a certain level of drop-off from the promotion season to the new season. Indeed, many pundits/observers say before the new season begins that promoted sides will be happy to finish one place outside the relegation zone, intimating that survival should be the goal for these teams. Analysing Promotion and the Following Season Nevertheless, it is commonly accepted that some leagues are easier to be promoted into than others. I ran a poll on Twitter to ascertain the general opinion of my followers as to which step-up is the most difficult to handle within the professional English game. The vast majority of respondents identified the promotion from Championship to Premier League as the most difficult to handle. This was certainly the result I expected, and it is just as interesting to see that the step-up from League Two to League One got zero votes in the informal poll. Are the respondents to this poll correct? Moreover, is it possible to calculate the “quality gap” between the divisions as this would be important in future in assessing the prospects of a player playing in a lower league being able to adapt to a league higher in the league structure. The idea of using promoted teams to measure this in the first instance is because it reduced certain variables. For example, most teams who are promoted retain the same manager/coaching staff for at least some of the following season, so we can expect a level of consistency in approach that a change in regime doesn’t usually grant. Also, there are no parachute payments to consider when moving up the divisions, though obviously there will still be an increase in budget as clubs anticipate the greater revenues available in a higher league through gate receipts, TV revenue and sponsorship opportunities. The most basic measure of the difficulty of the step-ups across divisions would probably be to look at the ratio of teams that are relegated directly after promotion, or even the average position of promoted teams the following season. When you run the numbers along these lines these are the results over the last nine seasons: This rudimentary use of historical information back up the result of the poll and also suggests that the gap between being promoted to League One compared to being promoted to the Championship and the Premier League is a fairly substantial one. The mean position of promoted clubs into League One is almost exactly mid-table and no sides were relegated at all over the last nine seasons. This looks set to change this season as Tranmere are currently looking likely to suffer that fate. This is certainly enough information for the lay person and is a fairly good guide to results that you’re expected to get. The other piece of good news about doing it this way is that there are decades of data across the EFL to get stuck into. The question of how relevant the results become after a few years though is a valid one. Would Analysing Performance Data Add Clearer Insight Into Post-Promotion Difficulties? However, those historical results don’t necessarily give the measurement of quality gap that was wanted at the outset. With the advances and widespread nature of football analytics in the modern-day performance data is available from promotion seasons and can be used to compare to the performance data in the following season in the higher division. This means there are specific areas of a team’s performance that can be compared.  The data so far only goes back four or five seasons so the sample sizes aren’t huge. Nevertheless, the analysis throws up a number of interesting areas for debate. Attacking Play Unsurprisingly, teams that are promoted find the next year more difficult at both ends of the pitch. The mean has been taken across all instances of promotion could be