1.0MRKT Insights - Football Consultancy Serviceshttps://mrktinsights.comrich600338<blockquote class="wp-embedded-content" data-secret="KJSUjoh9GR"><a href="https://mrktinsights.com/index.php/2020/07/01/the-value-of-minutes/">The value of minutes.</a></blockquote><iframe sandbox="allow-scripts" security="restricted" src="https://mrktinsights.com/index.php/2020/07/01/the-value-of-minutes/embed/#?secret=KJSUjoh9GR" width="600" height="338" title="“The value of minutes.” — MRKT Insights - Football Consultancy Services" data-secret="KJSUjoh9GR" frameborder="0" marginwidth="0" marginheight="0" scrolling="no" class="wp-embedded-content"></iframe><script type="text/javascript"> /* <![CDATA[ */ /** * WordPress inline HTML embed * * @since 4.4.0 * @output wp-includes/js/wp-embed.js * * Single line comments should not be used since they will break * the script when inlined in get_post_embed_html(), specifically * when the comments are not stripped out due to SCRIPT_DEBUG * being turned on. */ (function ( window, document ) { 'use strict'; /* Abort for ancient browsers. */ if ( ! document.querySelector || ! window.addEventListener || typeof URL === 'undefined' ) { return; } /** @namespace wp */ window.wp = window.wp || {}; /* Abort if script was already executed. */ if ( !! window.wp.receiveEmbedMessage ) { return; } /** * Receive embed message. * * @param {MessageEvent} e */ window.wp.receiveEmbedMessage = function( e ) { var data = e.data; /* Verify shape of message. */ if ( ! 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As we saw a major factor of success, particularly in the EFL, is to have a first choice XI who play most weeks.  When teams sign players there should always be a plan for how that player is going to be used.  As a first-choice player, expected to play every game when fit. As a back-up player to provide cover and be sufficiently good that they are not a significant downgrade. A development player not currently good enough for either a starting or a backup role but with the potential to reach that with the right development. How good the decision-makers are at anticipating the minutes these players will play, not only in the next season but in the seasons that follow will be vital to the club’s development over time. We therefore need a framework for the club decision-makers to use to see how good they are at forecasting how many minutes players will play in future seasons. Our suggestion is this is done by calculating the financial value of time on the pitch.  Our first question is, what is the financial value of one minute on the pitch? To calculate this we need to establish what the club’s player wage budget is. In a 48 game season (league plus first round of major cups), with 11 players on the pitch (and ignoring injury time and additional cup games) each League One team anticipates having a combined 47,520 of minutes played that require playing. If we take an average League One wage budget to be £3m a year (some will be more, some less) then we can say each minute on the pitch has a value of £63. This will be roughly £42 in League Two with a £2m wage bill. And with a £25m wage bill a Championship minute has a value of £526 In the Premier League with an average £100m wage bill and a 38 game season, each minute played has a value of £2658. Of course these are just average wage values. Each club can then take their own specific player  wage bill and find their individual value per minute played. We then need to find out what a good sized squad is and allocate the spending within it. Squad makeups Looking at the League One minutes played, and also accepting teams play different formations we can see the average squad makeup of played minutes is: Goalkeepers :Range: 1-3: Median 2 Centre backs: Range 2-8: Median 5 Fullbacks: Range 2-6: Median 4 Centre Midfielders: Range 3-8: Median 5 Attacking Midfielders/Wingers: Range 2-8: Median 4 Strikers Range 2-8: Median 4 This gives us 24 players who would be considered the first-team squad. We will ignore youth players at this stage although of course they could be promoted to the 24 man squad or provide cover. Allocation of minutes Not all 24 players will play the same number of minutes. Indeed, as we’ve seen, the better run teams tend to have a smaller core of regular starters supplemented by backup players capable of rotating in when required. So let us assume we want a core of 12 players playing 2500 minutes each and the other 12 averaging 1295 minutes each. We need clear first choices and second choices for each position. Anticipated minutes x Value of minutes We can now do some calculations for our hypothetical League One club with a 24 man squad and a £3m player wage budget. A League One first choice player should play 2500 minutes at a value of £63 a minute. An annual value of £157,500. A backup player should be recruited on the basis of being able to play 1295 minutes at £63 a minute. This gives us an annual value of a backup player of £81,585. These salary brackets should be seen as averages for first-choice and back-ups. It is the case that strikers earn more than full-backs. However In the simplest terms if the annual cost of the player is less than the monetary value of anticipated minutes played the player is an asset, if the cost is more, then they are a liability. Why anticipated minutes and not actual minutes? If the back-up player isn’t played because the first choice player is ever-present then it would seem harsh to call them a liability, they are supplying a service, it just hasn’t been required. Likewise, if a first-choice player is seriously injured that is unfortunate, not poor squad planning. There are players who will be liabilities though: All non-playing squad members outside the 24 man squad. A very expensive player will never be able to recover the value of their minutes if their annual cost exceeds the value of total minutes available in a season. An anticipated first-choice player who doesn’t retain first-choice status, whilst on first-choice wages. A framework for measuring recruitment success We generally use our squad score system for evaluation of the financial viability of a squad. Whilst the squad score is great for giving an overview of a squad what we are really interested in doing is ensuring that each position has a clear first choice and back up. It is no good having 5 perfectly good goalkeepers if you don’t have any midfielders you are happy to play. We also need to measure the predictive power of the club decision makers. Whilst it is good to have a clear idea of the starting XI for the next season it is far better to be able to accurately predict the starting XI two or three seasons ahead. At League One level most contracts will be two, perhaps three years. However Premier League teams are often giving out five year contracts.  There are two reasons for this; protecting the value of a desirable