1.0MRKT Insights - Football Consultancy Serviceshttps://mrktinsights.comrich600338<blockquote class="wp-embedded-content" data-secret="8v5zIgqhuB"><a href="https://mrktinsights.com/index.php/2023/01/17/reverse-engineering-brighton-and-hove-albion/">Reverse Engineering Brighton and Hove Albion</a></blockquote><iframe sandbox="allow-scripts" security="restricted" src="https://mrktinsights.com/index.php/2023/01/17/reverse-engineering-brighton-and-hove-albion/embed/#?secret=8v5zIgqhuB" width="600" height="338" title="“Reverse Engineering Brighton and Hove Albion” — MRKT Insights - Football Consultancy Services" data-secret="8v5zIgqhuB" frameborder="0" marginwidth="0" marginheight="0" scrolling="no" class="wp-embedded-content"></iframe><script type="text/javascript"> /* <![CDATA[ */ /** * WordPress inline HTML embed * * @since 4.4.0 * @output wp-includes/js/wp-embed.js * * Single line comments should not be used since they will break * the script when inlined in get_post_embed_html(), specifically * when the comments are not stripped out due to SCRIPT_DEBUG * being turned on. */ (function ( window, document ) { 'use strict'; /* Abort for ancient browsers. */ if ( ! document.querySelector || ! window.addEventListener || typeof URL === 'undefined' ) { return; } /** @namespace wp */ window.wp = window.wp || {}; /* Abort if script was already executed. */ if ( !! window.wp.receiveEmbedMessage ) { return; } /** * Receive embed message. * * @param {MessageEvent} e */ window.wp.receiveEmbedMessage = function( e ) { var data = e.data; /* Verify shape of message. */ if ( ! 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On the face of it this isn’t remarkable, there is usually a “surprise package” in the league, any team can go on a good run. Indeed Fulham, a newly promoted side are 6th. However Brighton don’t seem to be a flash in the pan. This is their 6th consecutive top flight season. It is a story of stablisation then steady improvement. If we look at their underlying performances using expected points (a measure that takes into account expected goals for and against) we can see a team that has improved by around 50% over the 6 seasons in the league.: 2017/18 – 40.85 2018/19 – 36.19 2019/20 – 48.02 2020/21 – 61.41 2021/22 – 54.18 2022/23 – 65.4 (pro rata) Chris Houghton’s team did the difficult bit, surviving the first two seasons, this is a huge transition for clubs and he should be praised as an important figure in Brighton’s success. It is from Potter’s arrival in 2019 that the Brighton story tends to be told, certainly the style of play changed and the underlying performances improved. 2022 saw the bigget challenge to this story of steady improvement. Like all relatively small clubs who have success they have lost key staff to larger clubs.  Outgoing player sales in the last two years include Marc Cucarella, Ben White and Yves Bissouma. Head Coach Graham Potter was taken by Chelsea, along with his coaching team and several key figures in the recruitment team including Paul Winstanley. Even Director of Football Dan Ashworth was taken to Newcastle United. Now normally if a club were to lose their director of football, their first team coaching team, and their senior recruitment staff we would predict a decline. Not necessarily an immediate crisis but almost certainly some difficult times ahead. That may still happen, maybe “we’ll prove you wrong” has been enough of a short term boost to sustain performance. It is possible that the club is still enjoying the fruits of labour from previous good decisions and the impact of decisions made now will only manifest in future seasons of decline. However it seems from the outside that solid decisions are still being made. De Zerbi was a great stylistic match, David Weir had worked alongside Dan Ashworth and was ready to step up when required. The recruitment staff who left were replaced by in-house staff who knew how Brighton played and recruited and were well prepared. Whole Club Ethos One of the big questions with any model (Manager led, Sporting Director led) of running a football club is how do you ensure the ethos and methodology used to run the club survives transitions. If the main person driving it goes then what is retained. It is why we tend to recommend a club led approach. You get a critical mass of people who all have the same ambition and vision for the club. The reality is the person at the very top is the owner, they need to be logical and understand risk. They need to be demanding that process is followed and ensure that personal ambitions do not lead to suboptimal choices being made. It is no surprise that the clubs who follow this mantra (Brighton, Brentford in the top divisions, and clubs like Plymouth Argyle in the EFL) are able to outperform clubs with much larger budgets. They are united in having owners with backgrounds in quantitative analysis, and in the case of the Premier League clubs, in professional gambling. Data Driven A successful gambler is the one who is better at gathering information that tilts the odds of success in their favour. These clubs are well known for their use of data. They have access to data used to inform their gambling businesses and use it within the football business. A single Premier League transaction can cost between £10m and £100m+ in transfer fee and wage payments. If we take a typical total deal cost at £30m and estimate that 5 such deals are done by each club each year we see £150m of investment. If the average Premier League club is successful in half these deals and the other half succeed we may think of a balance of £0.  Being even 5% more effective than average could shift that to a positive £7.5m annually.   If you can be even better then the effects multiply. Being better at assessing talent means you identify players who are undervalued meaning more points per pound spent and the ability to sell those players at a high rate. Small bets spread well Even with the best data analytics money can buy you won’t get every transfer right. In Brighton’s early Premier League days their record on big signings….wasn’t that good. Locadia – £19m – released on a free transfer – 24 from Netherlands Izquerido – £15m – released on a free transfer – 25 Belgium Jahanbaksh – £19m – nominal fee – 25 Netherlands Players were signed to be immediate first team players who never really established themselves as first teamers. They either didn’t settle into English football or struggled in a team that was changing playing identity. This isn’t unusual but it did show great data doesn’t always translate into successful transfers.  Brighton have only spent over £20m on two signings, the unfortunate Enoch Mwepu who sadly had to retire soon after signing, and Adam Webster. Webster has played regularly and retains decent value. The £12m-20m band is where Brighton have signed  their more established players such as Maupay (23), Trossard (24) Cucurella (23) and Estupian (23). By buying players