1.0MRKT Insights - Football Consultancy Serviceshttps://mrktinsights.comrich600338<blockquote class="wp-embedded-content" data-secret="WalZ3r86xk"><a href="https://mrktinsights.com/index.php/2024/06/03/complex-systems-in-football/">Complex Systems in Football</a></blockquote><iframe sandbox="allow-scripts" security="restricted" src="https://mrktinsights.com/index.php/2024/06/03/complex-systems-in-football/embed/#?secret=WalZ3r86xk" width="600" height="338" title="“Complex Systems in Football” — MRKT Insights - Football Consultancy Services" data-secret="WalZ3r86xk" frameborder="0" marginwidth="0" marginheight="0" scrolling="no" class="wp-embedded-content"></iframe><script type="text/javascript"> /* <![CDATA[ */ /** * WordPress inline HTML embed * * @since 4.4.0 * @output wp-includes/js/wp-embed.js * * Single line comments should not be used since they will break * the script when inlined in get_post_embed_html(), specifically * when the comments are not stripped out due to SCRIPT_DEBUG * being turned on. */ (function ( window, document ) { 'use strict'; /* Abort for ancient browsers. */ if ( ! document.querySelector || ! window.addEventListener || typeof URL === 'undefined' ) { return; } /** @namespace wp */ window.wp = window.wp || {}; /* Abort if script was already executed. */ if ( !! window.wp.receiveEmbedMessage ) { return; } /** * Receive embed message. * * @param {MessageEvent} e */ window.wp.receiveEmbedMessage = function( e ) { var data = e.data; /* Verify shape of message. */ if ( ! 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When the ready message is received by the post embed window, the * window will then (re-)send the height message right away. */ source.contentWindow.postMessage( { message: 'ready', secret: secret }, '*' ); } } window.addEventListener( 'message', window.wp.receiveEmbedMessage, false ); document.addEventListener( 'DOMContentLoaded', onLoad, false ); })( window, document ); //# sourceURL=https://mrktinsights.com/wp-includes/js/wp-embed.js /* ]]> */ </script> https://mrktinsights.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/image-7.png705363Pep Guardiola : “Football is not A, B and C, what works last season will not necessarily work this season. What did not work last season, could work now. It is open, it is moving, it is like an animal, it develops. Sometimes it moves this way, sometimes it moves another way.” “It is open, it is moving, it is like an animal, it develops.” Pep phrases this in an interesting way. He is describing the characteristics of a complex system. He is probably referring to tactical trends, whether adding a pure 9 in Haaland, or a dynamic strikerless front 3, teams find ways to score using different approaches. Trends in how teams line up alter over time.  This applies to the wider definition of football clubs too. They are also complex systems.  Complex systems are systems composed of many components that interact with each other. The economy or the natural world are examples of such systems.  Modelling such systems is difficult. We know that changing inputs will have an impact on the output but we can’t know for sure because of the multiple interactions that occur. Even in the most basic ways we can see this in football. If you take out De Bruyne for Doku you aren’t just swapping two attacking midfielders. You are removing a great passer, but gaining speed and dribbling. You can’t expect them to play in the same way, and the players around them will change what they do to make the best use of the skill-sets on the pitch around them. Adaptation is key to understanding complex systems. The change in the system was one player for one player, but the impact was felt at many levels. As individual players they understood that adjustments had been made, maybe they need to play passes, maybe the fullback needs to overlap less or make more inverted runs.  Could we model how the change impacted City’s likelihood of scoring a goal? There are threat/on ball value models that can show what a player generally does. However there are a lot of factors that change that likelihood in a specific game. Maybe the fullback is scared of direct 1v1 running, or lacks pace. If Doku is up against that player then his expected output is probably higher than against a generic PL defender.  Another feature of complex systems is critical transitions. This means that there is a tipping point where a system goes into failure. Take our well-functioning team. The goalkeeper goes off injured, but there is no replacement on the bench, only one element of the system has changed but the impact is critical. Suddenly a non-specialist has to go in goal, the team changes shape (adaptation) to try and limit the number of shots against but every chance conceded is now far more likely to result in a goal against. Football teams also fit the nested criteria of a complex system. We have a team that is a complex system in itself, made up of players, and each player is a complex system, where their performance levels are influenced by many factors (physical, psychological, environmental). The performance of a football team is also emergent. This means that players interact differently when together than they would individually. A good example is Alphonso Davies, a left-back for Bayern Munich but an attacker for a national team, his ability is valued differently in different contexts.  A head coach working with a group of players will often try different systems to see the best way they can work with them to produce the best results. Non-linear (butterly effect) impacts are common in football, a small change can have an outsized impact. A missed opportunity can lead to a defeat, which can lead to a sacking of a coach, which can lead to a player being sold, which can lead to a new player signing, who scores 30 goals, and is sold for £50m etc etc And finally, feedback loops are part of complex systems. We may call it momentum in football, we win some games, better players want to join, we sign them, we win more games, players enjoy winning and focus more on the right preparation which enables a better chance to win each game. How to work with complex systems So if we agree these systems are complex then how does that change how we work within them? The usual approach is to look at the system as a collection of individual parts. We usually then focus on the coaches and the players and assign blame for failure onto one (or more) of them. This is sometimes referred to as a reductionist approach. Even if we appreciate it is a complex system, we identify one part of the system and assume by changing that part we will improve the whole. However in football, and other complex systems, we don’t really know how much of the success or failure is reliant on each individual input. And even if we change that person (input) we rarely do so in isolation and without changing many other factors at the same time. In a complex system we see the football club as being more than just the sum of its parts. Ceteris Paribus and the problem with measuring output Ceteris Paribus means “all else remaining equal” and is an important method for testing impact. For example if we sign a new striker ceteris paribus how many more goals would we forecast for the team next year? We can certainly guesstimate based on factors like their xG performance, the number of shots they generate per game, the creativity of the players in our team in terms of xA.    But football teams are dynamic, they change more than just one player in almost every game, over the close season a team usually changes 3-6 starting players. You can never run a controlled experiment. We can work with generalities but they always seem a bit lame. Saying “typically strikers who take more shots