{"id":2725,"date":"2020-08-26T19:25:35","date_gmt":"2020-08-26T19:25:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mrktinsights.com\/?p=2725"},"modified":"2020-08-26T19:52:09","modified_gmt":"2020-08-26T19:52:09","slug":"wisdom-of-the-crowd","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mrktinsights.com\/index.php\/2020\/08\/26\/wisdom-of-the-crowd\/","title":{"rendered":"Wisdom of the crowd"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

After a year working in football full time player valuation is one area that remains somewhat of a mystery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Football ability is granular, yes you get generational talents, but most of the time you are comparing players of roughly the same ability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A company like ours exists to find the \u00a3500k player who, under the right circumstances, could give you the same output as the \u00a35m player.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the top end the stakes are even higher. With \u00a3100k a week wage packets a “wrong” \u00a325m transfer is a \u00a350m millstone around the neck over the next 5 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And for investors looking to buy clubs how do they actually value the current playing assets? <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Quite often we see data from TransferMarkt used in client pitches, everyone laughs and jokes about it but the fact is there really aren’t any other systems that even attempt valuation, in the public domain at least.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another source, and one we’ve publicly referenced before, is Football Manager. It is actually quite a decent source of information on contract lengths, wages, and valuations. Often not that far off from reality at all and if you wanted to guess the wages of a player in an obscure league it at least gives you a ballpark.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There are several factors that impact on a transfer fee.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Probably the most important is the current wage of the player. If a player is currently earning a lower wage than he is valued at by the buying club, is on a long contract, and at a club who don’t want to sell the fee is going to be BIG.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If the player is on a wage well above market value it is very difficult to shift them. Fees are going to be low or non-existent. These players often are sent off on loan with a percentage of their wage being covered and perhaps a small fee paid.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What I wanted to do was see if the “wisdom of the crowd” gave a better valuation than TransferMarkt or Football Manager.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Would the average fan (albeit with the excellent taste to follow MRKT Insights people on twitter) have a good understanding of player value?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The request was send out and 12 hours later we had 1007 completed valuation forms for Everton’s squad.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
Name<\/td>Crowdsource<\/td>TM Value<\/td>FM Value<\/td>Fee Paid<\/td><\/tr>
Jordan Pickford<\/td>25<\/td>25.2<\/td>24<\/td>30<\/td><\/tr>
Jon-Joe Kenny<\/td>11.5<\/td>8.55<\/td>15.9<\/td>0<\/td><\/tr>
Seamus Coleman<\/td>7<\/td>8.55<\/td>21<\/td>0.06<\/td><\/tr>
Lucas Digne<\/td>36<\/td>25.2<\/td>30<\/td>17<\/td><\/tr>
Michael Keane<\/td>21<\/td>18<\/td>20<\/td>24<\/td><\/tr>
Yerry Mina<\/td>21<\/td>18<\/td>23<\/td>27<\/td><\/tr>
Mason Holgate<\/td>32<\/td>16.2<\/td>19<\/td>1.5<\/td><\/tr>
Tom Davies<\/td>11<\/td>14.4<\/td>15<\/td>0<\/td><\/tr>
Andre Gomes<\/td>22<\/td>20.25<\/td>31<\/td>23<\/td><\/tr>
Fabian Delph<\/td>4.5<\/td>9<\/td>24<\/td>11<\/td><\/tr>
Jean-Philllipe Gbamin<\/td>17<\/td>20.25<\/td>24<\/td>24<\/td><\/tr>
Bernard<\/td>13<\/td>14.4<\/td>29<\/td>0<\/td><\/tr>
Alex Iwobi<\/td>18<\/td>22.95<\/td>30<\/td>27<\/td><\/tr>
Gylfi Sigurdsson<\/td>13<\/td>16.2<\/td>26<\/td>45<\/td><\/tr>
Theo Walcott<\/td>7<\/td>10.8<\/td>19<\/td>23<\/td><\/tr>
Yannick Bolasie<\/td>4<\/td>3.6<\/td>16<\/td>27<\/td><\/tr>
Moise Kean<\/td>26<\/td>22.5<\/td>15<\/td>27<\/td><\/tr>
Cenk Tosun<\/td>9<\/td>10.8<\/td>15<\/td>27<\/td><\/tr>
Richarlison<\/td>90<\/td>46.8<\/td>32<\/td>40<\/td><\/tr>
Dominic Calvert-Lewin<\/td>40<\/td>21.6<\/td>21<\/td>1.5<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

I’ve applied a weighted average to Crowdsourced responses to get the single figure value. Personally I’d have Iwobi higher and Gomes lower but they are certainly more accurate than the other sources.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The slightly concerning thing from an Everton point of view is how fewer of the players who transferred to the club have increased in value. Two youth signings from the lower leagues in Calvert-Lewin and Holgate, and a certain 60k Irishman have generated huge profits. Of the big money era signings only Digne and Richarlison (hugely) have gone up in value.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

An interesting exercise all round, thanks to everyone who took part.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

After a year working in football full time player valuation is one area that remains somewhat of a mystery. Football ability is granular, yes you get generational talents, but most of the time you are comparing players of roughly the same ability. A company like ours exists to find the \u00a3500k player who, under the right circumstances, could give you the same output as the \u00a35m player. At the top end the stakes are even higher. With \u00a3100k a week wage packets a “wrong” \u00a325m transfer is a \u00a350m millstone around the neck over the next 5 years. And for investors looking to buy clubs how do they actually value the current playing assets? Quite often we see data from TransferMarkt used in client pitches, everyone laughs and jokes about it but the fact is there really aren’t any other systems that even attempt valuation, in the public domain at least. Another source, and one we’ve publicly referenced before, is Football Manager. It is actually quite a decent source of information on contract lengths, wages, and valuations. Often not that far off from reality at all and if you wanted to guess the wages of a player in an obscure league it at least gives you a ballpark. There are several factors that impact on a transfer fee. Probably the most important is the current wage of the player. If a player is currently earning a lower wage than he is valued at by the buying club, is on a long contract, and at a club who don’t want to sell the fee is going to be BIG. If the player is on a wage well above market value it is very difficult to shift them. Fees are going to be low or non-existent. These players often are sent off on loan with a percentage of their wage being covered and perhaps a small fee paid. What I wanted to do was see if the “wisdom of the crowd” gave a better valuation than TransferMarkt or Football Manager. Would the average fan (albeit with the excellent taste to follow MRKT Insights people on twitter) have a good understanding of player value? The request was send out and 12 hours later we had 1007 completed valuation forms for Everton’s squad. Name Crowdsource TM Value FM Value Fee Paid Jordan Pickford 25 25.2 24 30 Jon-Joe Kenny 11.5 8.55 15.9 0 Seamus Coleman 7 8.55 21 0.06 Lucas Digne 36 25.2 30 17 Michael Keane 21 18 20 24 Yerry Mina 21 18 23 27 Mason Holgate 32 16.2 19 1.5 Tom Davies 11 14.4 15 0 Andre Gomes 22 20.25 31 23 Fabian Delph 4.5 9 24 11 Jean-Philllipe Gbamin 17 20.25 24 24 Bernard 13 14.4 29 0 Alex Iwobi 18 22.95 30 27 Gylfi Sigurdsson 13 16.2 26 45 Theo Walcott 7 10.8 19 23 Yannick Bolasie 4 3.6 16 27 Moise Kean 26 22.5 15 27 Cenk Tosun 9 10.8 15 27 Richarlison 90 46.8 32 40 Dominic Calvert-Lewin 40 21.6 21 1.5 I’ve applied a weighted average to Crowdsourced responses to get the single figure value. Personally I’d have Iwobi higher and Gomes lower but they are certainly more accurate than the other sources. The slightly concerning thing from an Everton point of view is how fewer of the players who transferred to the club have increased in value. Two youth signings from the lower leagues in Calvert-Lewin and Holgate, and a certain 60k Irishman have generated huge profits. Of the big money era signings only Digne and Richarlison (hugely) have gone up in value. An interesting exercise all round, thanks to everyone who took part.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":2728,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_oasis_is_in_workflow":0,"_oasis_original":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[23,1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2725","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mrkt-insights","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"\nWisdom of the crowd - MRKT Insights - Football Consultancy Services<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/mrktinsights.com\/index.php\/2020\/08\/26\/wisdom-of-the-crowd\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Wisdom of the crowd - MRKT Insights - Football Consultancy Services\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"After a year working in football full time player valuation is one area that remains somewhat of a mystery. Football ability is granular, yes you get generational talents, but most of the time you are comparing players of roughly the same ability. A company like ours exists to find the \u00a3500k player who, under the right circumstances, could give you the same output as the \u00a35m player. At the top end the stakes are even higher. With \u00a3100k a week wage packets a “wrong” \u00a325m transfer is a \u00a350m millstone around the neck over the next 5 years. And for investors looking to buy clubs how do they actually value the current playing assets? Quite often we see data from TransferMarkt used in client pitches, everyone laughs and jokes about it but the fact is there really aren’t any other systems that even attempt valuation, in the public domain at least. Another source, and one we’ve publicly referenced before, is Football Manager. It is actually quite a decent source of information on contract lengths, wages, and valuations. Often not that far off from reality at all and if you wanted to guess the wages of a player in an obscure league it at least gives you a ballpark. There are several factors that impact on a transfer fee. Probably the most important is the current wage of the player. If a player is currently earning a lower wage than he is valued at by the buying club, is on a long contract, and at a club who don’t want to sell the fee is going to be BIG. If the player is on a wage well above market value it is very difficult to shift them. Fees are going to be low or non-existent. These players often are sent off on loan with a percentage of their wage being covered and perhaps a small fee paid. What I wanted to do was see if the “wisdom of the crowd” gave a better valuation than TransferMarkt or Football Manager. Would the average fan (albeit with the excellent taste to follow MRKT Insights people on twitter) have a good understanding of player value? The request was send out and 12 hours later we had 1007 completed valuation forms for Everton’s squad. Name Crowdsource TM Value FM Value Fee Paid Jordan Pickford 25 25.2 24 30 Jon-Joe Kenny 11.5 8.55 15.9 0 Seamus Coleman 7 8.55 21 0.06 Lucas Digne 36 25.2 30 17 Michael Keane 21 18 20 24 Yerry Mina 21 18 23 27 Mason Holgate 32 16.2 19 1.5 Tom Davies 11 14.4 15 0 Andre Gomes 22 20.25 31 23 Fabian Delph 4.5 9 24 11 Jean-Philllipe Gbamin 17 20.25 24 24 Bernard 13 14.4 29 0 Alex Iwobi 18 22.95 30 27 Gylfi Sigurdsson 13 16.2 26 45 Theo Walcott 7 10.8 19 23 Yannick Bolasie 4 3.6 16 27 Moise Kean 26 22.5 15 27 Cenk Tosun 9 10.8 15 27 Richarlison 90 46.8 32 40 Dominic Calvert-Lewin 40 21.6 21 1.5 I’ve applied a weighted average to Crowdsourced responses to get the single figure value. Personally I’d have Iwobi higher and Gomes lower but they are certainly more accurate than the other sources. The slightly concerning thing from an Everton point of view is how fewer of the players who transferred to the club have increased in value. Two youth signings from the lower leagues in Calvert-Lewin and Holgate, and a certain 60k Irishman have generated huge profits. Of the big money era signings only Digne and Richarlison (hugely) have gone up in value. An interesting exercise all round, thanks to everyone who took part.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/mrktinsights.com\/index.php\/2020\/08\/26\/wisdom-of-the-crowd\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"MRKT Insights - Football Consultancy Services\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2020-08-26T19:25:35+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2020-08-26T19:52:09+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/mrktinsights.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/image-5.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"600\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"371\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Tim Keech\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@insightmrkt\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@insightmrkt\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Tim Keech\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Estimated reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/mrktinsights.com\/index.php\/2020\/08\/26\/wisdom-of-the-crowd\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/mrktinsights.com\/index.php\/2020\/08\/26\/wisdom-of-the-crowd\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Tim Keech\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/mrktinsights.com\/#\/schema\/person\/d956f2345ba372416ae11cee92a07873\"},\"headline\":\"Wisdom of the crowd\",\"datePublished\":\"2020-08-26T19:25:35+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2020-08-26T19:52:09+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/mrktinsights.com\/index.php\/2020\/08\/26\/wisdom-of-the-crowd\/\"},\"wordCount\":530,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/mrktinsights.com\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/mrktinsights.com\/index.php\/2020\/08\/26\/wisdom-of-the-crowd\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/mrktinsights.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/image-5.png\",\"articleSection\":[\"MRKT Insights\",\"Uncategorized\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/mrktinsights.com\/index.php\/2020\/08\/26\/wisdom-of-the-crowd\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/mrktinsights.com\/index.php\/2020\/08\/26\/wisdom-of-the-crowd\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/mrktinsights.com\/index.php\/2020\/08\/26\/wisdom-of-the-crowd\/\",\"name\":\"Wisdom of the crowd - 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Football ability is granular, yes you get generational talents, but most of the time you are comparing players of roughly the same ability. A company like ours exists to find the \u00a3500k player who, under the right circumstances, could give you the same output as the \u00a35m player. At the top end the stakes are even higher. With \u00a3100k a week wage packets a “wrong” \u00a325m transfer is a \u00a350m millstone around the neck over the next 5 years. And for investors looking to buy clubs how do they actually value the current playing assets? Quite often we see data from TransferMarkt used in client pitches, everyone laughs and jokes about it but the fact is there really aren’t any other systems that even attempt valuation, in the public domain at least. Another source, and one we’ve publicly referenced before, is Football Manager. It is actually quite a decent source of information on contract lengths, wages, and valuations. Often not that far off from reality at all and if you wanted to guess the wages of a player in an obscure league it at least gives you a ballpark. There are several factors that impact on a transfer fee. Probably the most important is the current wage of the player. If a player is currently earning a lower wage than he is valued at by the buying club, is on a long contract, and at a club who don’t want to sell the fee is going to be BIG. If the player is on a wage well above market value it is very difficult to shift them. Fees are going to be low or non-existent. These players often are sent off on loan with a percentage of their wage being covered and perhaps a small fee paid. What I wanted to do was see if the “wisdom of the crowd” gave a better valuation than TransferMarkt or Football Manager. Would the average fan (albeit with the excellent taste to follow MRKT Insights people on twitter) have a good understanding of player value? The request was send out and 12 hours later we had 1007 completed valuation forms for Everton’s squad. Name Crowdsource TM Value FM Value Fee Paid Jordan Pickford 25 25.2 24 30 Jon-Joe Kenny 11.5 8.55 15.9 0 Seamus Coleman 7 8.55 21 0.06 Lucas Digne 36 25.2 30 17 Michael Keane 21 18 20 24 Yerry Mina 21 18 23 27 Mason Holgate 32 16.2 19 1.5 Tom Davies 11 14.4 15 0 Andre Gomes 22 20.25 31 23 Fabian Delph 4.5 9 24 11 Jean-Philllipe Gbamin 17 20.25 24 24 Bernard 13 14.4 29 0 Alex Iwobi 18 22.95 30 27 Gylfi Sigurdsson 13 16.2 26 45 Theo Walcott 7 10.8 19 23 Yannick Bolasie 4 3.6 16 27 Moise Kean 26 22.5 15 27 Cenk Tosun 9 10.8 15 27 Richarlison 90 46.8 32 40 Dominic Calvert-Lewin 40 21.6 21 1.5 I’ve applied a weighted average to Crowdsourced responses to get the single figure value. Personally I’d have Iwobi higher and Gomes lower but they are certainly more accurate than the other sources. The slightly concerning thing from an Everton point of view is how fewer of the players who transferred to the club have increased in value. Two youth signings from the lower leagues in Calvert-Lewin and Holgate, and a certain 60k Irishman have generated huge profits. Of the big money era signings only Digne and Richarlison (hugely) have gone up in value. An interesting exercise all round, thanks to everyone who took part.","og_url":"https:\/\/mrktinsights.com\/index.php\/2020\/08\/26\/wisdom-of-the-crowd\/","og_site_name":"MRKT Insights - Football Consultancy Services","article_published_time":"2020-08-26T19:25:35+00:00","article_modified_time":"2020-08-26T19:52:09+00:00","og_image":[{"width":600,"height":371,"url":"https:\/\/mrktinsights.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/image-5.png","type":"image\/png"}],"author":"Tim Keech","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@insightmrkt","twitter_site":"@insightmrkt","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Tim Keech","Estimated reading time":"3 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/mrktinsights.com\/index.php\/2020\/08\/26\/wisdom-of-the-crowd\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/mrktinsights.com\/index.php\/2020\/08\/26\/wisdom-of-the-crowd\/"},"author":{"name":"Tim Keech","@id":"https:\/\/mrktinsights.com\/#\/schema\/person\/d956f2345ba372416ae11cee92a07873"},"headline":"Wisdom of the crowd","datePublished":"2020-08-26T19:25:35+00:00","dateModified":"2020-08-26T19:52:09+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/mrktinsights.com\/index.php\/2020\/08\/26\/wisdom-of-the-crowd\/"},"wordCount":530,"commentCount":0,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/mrktinsights.com\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/mrktinsights.com\/index.php\/2020\/08\/26\/wisdom-of-the-crowd\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/mrktinsights.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/image-5.png","articleSection":["MRKT Insights","Uncategorized"],"inLanguage":"en-GB","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/mrktinsights.com\/index.php\/2020\/08\/26\/wisdom-of-the-crowd\/#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/mrktinsights.com\/index.php\/2020\/08\/26\/wisdom-of-the-crowd\/","url":"https:\/\/mrktinsights.com\/index.php\/2020\/08\/26\/wisdom-of-the-crowd\/","name":"Wisdom of the crowd - 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