{"id":4225,"date":"2021-05-25T14:04:38","date_gmt":"2021-05-25T14:04:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mrktinsights.com\/?p=4225"},"modified":"2021-05-25T14:04:40","modified_gmt":"2021-05-25T14:04:40","slug":"how-much-does-it-cost-to-join-the-elite","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mrktinsights.com\/index.php\/2021\/05\/25\/how-much-does-it-cost-to-join-the-elite\/","title":{"rendered":"How much does it cost to join the elite?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
A quote I\u2019ve recently taken to repeating at every opportunity is from legendary college football coach Bear Bryant:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cHave a plan, follow the plan, you\u2019ll be surprised at how successful you\u2019ll be. Most people don\u2019t have a plan, that is why it is easy to beat most folks\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But what is a plan in football?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It is pretty obvious that the clubs who win things usually have the most money, which enables them to get the best players, and best coaches.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If you have the ability to spend like the elite you can join the elite. Every club who has sustainably spent at elite levels has joined the group. This season’s Champions League semi-finals contained Chelsea, PSG, and Manchester City who all followed this model.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
One of the main criticisms of the proposed European Super League was that it would crush the dreams of teams that thought that they could join the elite one day. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Whilst there are many clubs with aspirations to join the elite they don\u2019t have unlimited funds to \u201cbrute force\u201d their way in. It is very easy to increase spending, the Premier League is home to many clubs who thought the following was a plan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Increase spending for a few years.<\/li>
Qualify for Europe.<\/li>
Attract better players.<\/li>
Get back into Europe and increase revenues that allow permanent increase in spending to elite levels.<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n
Most of these plans failed after Step 1. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Spending an extra \u00a3100m on fees and wages is great fun. The fans love it. You get positive media coverage. Positivity often leads to a short term improvement in results. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
The problem is even \u00a3500m injected to a mid table Premier League club over a 5 year period doesn\u2019t bridge the spending gap to the elite. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
It is like turning up to a race against Formula 1 cars in an Aston Martin rather than a Ford Focus. You\u2019ll be faster than you were for sure, you\u2019ll get some admiring glances, but you aren\u2019t going to win the race. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Let\u2019s look at the maths behind these statements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
How much does it actually cost to go from a mid table team to an elite team In a typical top level league.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
6 elite teams<\/p>\n\n\n\n
8 average teams<\/p>\n\n\n\n
6 poor team<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Elite teams are 0.5xG better than average teams<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Average teams are 0xG better than average teams<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Poor teams are 0.5xG worse than average teams <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Elite plays 38 fixtures:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
10 against other elite teams (0xG difference)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
16 against average teams (+0.5 xG difference)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
12 against poor teams (+1xG)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Average plays 38 fixtures:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
12 against elite teams (-0.5 xG)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
14 against average teams (0xG)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
12 against poor teams (+0.5 xG)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Poor plays 38 fixtures<\/p>\n\n\n\n
12 against elite (-1 xG)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
16 against average (-0.5 xG)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
10 against poor (0 xG)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
0.25xG chances:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Poor = 0.75xG per game<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Average 1.25 xG per game<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Elite = 1.75xG per game<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Expected points<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Elite vs Poor = 2.14 vs 0.63<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Elite vs Average = 1.76 vs 0.99<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Same level = 1.36 vs 1.36<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Poor vs Average = 0.9 x 1.79 <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Expected points total over 38 game season<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If we look at those points totals we see they match up very closely with the 4-6th, 10-12th and 16th-18th position places in a typical Premier League season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
@SwissRamble has compiled the latest available Premier League wages.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If we average the elite\/average\/poor teams we see annual average wages of:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Elite = \u00a3266m<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Average = \u00a3124m<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Poor = \u00a385m<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
In other words whilst increasing your spend by \u00a340m should be enough to take a Premier League team from the bottom end to midtable reaching the top 6 from midtable takes on average another \u00a3140m each and every year on wages to achieve<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The irony of it all is that many Premier League teams who have \u201chad a go\u201d at bridging the gap would almost certainly now be a lot closer to the elite if they had spent the money in a more strategic way.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In other words, if they had had a plan, rather than just a dream.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
How you gonna make a dream come true?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
I don\u2019t think you should get all your strategic advice from 1950s musicals but South Pacific has some quite pertinent lyrics in the song Happy Talk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
You\u2019ve got to have a dream,<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If you don\u2019t have a dream,<\/p>\n\n\n\n
How you gonna make a dream come true?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
You need a vision and a methodology.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Take our theoretical mid-table Premier League club. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Their vision is to join the elite of the Champions League.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
They can spend \u00a3140m extra a year on wages and try to bridge the gap that way. But if they can\u2019t? <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Alternatives<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
What is a football team and why do they succeed on the pitch?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It is a collection of very good football players, coached by very good coaches.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The elite clubs tend to have very diverse squads of the best players from around the world, signed for high prices, and coached by elite level Head Coaches with \u201cproven\u201d success elsewhere before they took the job at the elite club.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
This is the typical way elite clubs are set up. They recruit only the best, and usually for high fees and high wages.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The lobster and caviar approach of getting the best ingredients prepared by a top chef.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
This doesn\u2019t mean it is the only way to succeed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Many of these previous blogs have highlighted the teams who have done things differently. The Red Bull model, the Atalanta model. What they all share is they have found a combination of unusual playing styles, alternative sources of players, and player and coach development.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Unusual ingredients, prepared well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Summary<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Turning a mid table club into a permanent member of the elite is likely to cost at least \u00a3140m a year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Great recruitment and managerial hires can get you close (Leicester City), but it is easy to increase spending significantly for zero gain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u00a3140m is a ludicrously large sum of money to spend on trying to outcompete rival clubs for the same players, there are better uses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Invest that money into the key areas:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Grow the size of your player pool – see the \u201cbuy the vineyards\u201d blog.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Create pathways and capture the value along the way – club networks<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Train the best coaches and give them chances and responsibility early.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Develop a unique style of play. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
A quote I\u2019ve recently taken to repeating at every opportunity is from legendary college football coach Bear Bryant: \u201cHave a plan, follow the plan, you\u2019ll be surprised at how successful you\u2019ll be. Most people don\u2019t have a plan, that is why it is easy to beat most folks\u201d But what is a plan in football? It is pretty obvious that the clubs who win things usually have the most money, which enables them to get the best players, and best coaches. If you have the ability to spend like the elite you can join the elite. Every club who has sustainably spent at elite levels has joined the group. This season’s Champions League semi-finals contained Chelsea, PSG, and Manchester City who all followed this model. One of the main criticisms of the proposed European Super League was that it would crush the dreams of teams that thought that they could join the elite one day. Whilst there are many clubs with aspirations to join the elite they don\u2019t have unlimited funds to \u201cbrute force\u201d their way in. It is very easy to increase spending, the Premier League is home to many clubs who thought the following was a plan. Increase spending for a few years. Qualify for Europe. Attract better players. Get back into Europe and increase revenues that allow permanent increase in spending to elite levels. Most of these plans failed after Step 1. Spending an extra \u00a3100m on fees and wages is great fun. The fans love it. You get positive media coverage. Positivity often leads to a short term improvement in results. The problem is even \u00a3500m injected to a mid table Premier League club over a 5 year period doesn\u2019t bridge the spending gap to the elite. It is like turning up to a race against Formula 1 cars in an Aston Martin rather than a Ford Focus. You\u2019ll be faster than you were for sure, you\u2019ll get some admiring glances, but you aren\u2019t going to win the race. Let\u2019s look at the maths behind these statements. How much does it actually cost to go from a mid table team to an elite team In a typical top level league. 6 elite teams 8 average teams 6 poor team Elite teams are 0.5xG better than average teams Average teams are 0xG better than average teams Poor teams are 0.5xG worse than average teams Elite plays 38 fixtures: 10 against other elite teams (0xG difference) 16 against average teams (+0.5 xG difference) 12 against poor teams (+1xG) Average plays 38 fixtures: 12 against elite teams (-0.5 xG) 14 against average teams (0xG) 12 against poor teams (+0.5 xG) Poor plays 38 fixtures 12 against elite (-1 xG) 16 against average (-0.5 xG) 10 against poor (0 xG) 0.25xG chances: Poor = 0.75xG per game Average 1.25 xG per game Elite = 1.75xG per game Expected points Elite vs Poor = 2.14 vs 0.63 Elite vs Average = 1.76 vs 0.99 Same level = 1.36 vs 1.36 Poor vs Average = 0.9 x 1.79 Expected points total over 38 game season Elite = 25.68 (from poor) + 28.16 (from average) + 13.6 (same level) = 67 points Average = 11.88 (from elite) + 19.04 (from average) + 21.48 (from poor) = 52 points Poor = 7.56 (from elite) + 14.4 (from average) + 13.6 (from poor) = 36 points If we look at those points totals we see they match up very closely with the 4-6th, 10-12th and 16th-18th position places in a typical Premier League season. @SwissRamble has compiled the latest available Premier League wages. If we average the elite\/average\/poor teams we see annual average wages of: Elite = \u00a3266m Average = \u00a3124m Poor = \u00a385m In other words whilst increasing your spend by \u00a340m should be enough to take a Premier League team from the bottom end to midtable reaching the top 6 from midtable takes on average another \u00a3140m each and every year on wages to achieve. The irony of it all is that many Premier League teams who have \u201chad a go\u201d at bridging the gap would almost certainly now be a lot closer to the elite if they had spent the money in a more strategic way. In other words, if they had had a plan, rather than just a dream. How you gonna make a dream come true? I don\u2019t think you should get all your strategic advice from 1950s musicals but South Pacific has some quite pertinent lyrics in the song Happy Talk. You\u2019ve got to have a dream, If you don\u2019t have a dream, How you gonna make a dream come true? You need a vision and a methodology. Take our theoretical mid-table Premier League club. Their vision is to join the elite of the Champions League. They can spend \u00a3140m extra a year on wages and try to bridge the gap that way. But if they can\u2019t? Alternatives What is a football team and why do they succeed on the pitch? It is a collection of very good football players, coached by very good coaches. The elite clubs tend to have very diverse squads of the best players from around the world, signed for high prices, and coached by elite level Head Coaches with \u201cproven\u201d success elsewhere before they took the job at the elite club. This is the typical way elite clubs are set up. They recruit only the best, and usually for high fees and high wages. The lobster and caviar approach of getting the best ingredients prepared by a top chef. This doesn\u2019t mean it is the only way to succeed. Many of these previous blogs have highlighted the teams who have done things differently. The Red Bull model, the Atalanta model. What they all share is they have found a combination of unusual playing styles, alternative sources of players, and player and coach development. Unusual ingredients, prepared well. Summary Turning a mid table club into a permanent member of the elite is likely to<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":4226,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_oasis_is_in_workflow":0,"_oasis_original":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[23],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4225","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mrkt-insights"],"yoast_head":"\n
How much does it cost to join the elite? - MRKT Insights - Football Consultancy Services<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/mrktinsights.com\/index.php\/2021\/05\/25\/how-much-does-it-cost-to-join-the-elite\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"How much does it cost to join the elite? - MRKT Insights - Football Consultancy Services\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"A quote I\u2019ve recently taken to repeating at every opportunity is from legendary college football coach Bear Bryant: \u201cHave a plan, follow the plan, you\u2019ll be surprised at how successful you\u2019ll be. Most people don\u2019t have a plan, that is why it is easy to beat most folks\u201d But what is a plan in football? It is pretty obvious that the clubs who win things usually have the most money, which enables them to get the best players, and best coaches. If you have the ability to spend like the elite you can join the elite. Every club who has sustainably spent at elite levels has joined the group. This season’s Champions League semi-finals contained Chelsea, PSG, and Manchester City who all followed this model. One of the main criticisms of the proposed European Super League was that it would crush the dreams of teams that thought that they could join the elite one day. Whilst there are many clubs with aspirations to join the elite they don\u2019t have unlimited funds to \u201cbrute force\u201d their way in. It is very easy to increase spending, the Premier League is home to many clubs who thought the following was a plan. Increase spending for a few years. Qualify for Europe. Attract better players. Get back into Europe and increase revenues that allow permanent increase in spending to elite levels. Most of these plans failed after Step 1. Spending an extra \u00a3100m on fees and wages is great fun. The fans love it. You get positive media coverage. Positivity often leads to a short term improvement in results. The problem is even \u00a3500m injected to a mid table Premier League club over a 5 year period doesn\u2019t bridge the spending gap to the elite. It is like turning up to a race against Formula 1 cars in an Aston Martin rather than a Ford Focus. You\u2019ll be faster than you were for sure, you\u2019ll get some admiring glances, but you aren\u2019t going to win the race. Let\u2019s look at the maths behind these statements. How much does it actually cost to go from a mid table team to an elite team In a typical top level league. 6 elite teams 8 average teams 6 poor team Elite teams are 0.5xG better than average teams Average teams are 0xG better than average teams Poor teams are 0.5xG worse than average teams Elite plays 38 fixtures: 10 against other elite teams (0xG difference) 16 against average teams (+0.5 xG difference) 12 against poor teams (+1xG) Average plays 38 fixtures: 12 against elite teams (-0.5 xG) 14 against average teams (0xG) 12 against poor teams (+0.5 xG) Poor plays 38 fixtures 12 against elite (-1 xG) 16 against average (-0.5 xG) 10 against poor (0 xG) 0.25xG chances: Poor = 0.75xG per game Average 1.25 xG per game Elite = 1.75xG per game Expected points Elite vs Poor = 2.14 vs 0.63 Elite vs Average = 1.76 vs 0.99 Same level = 1.36 vs 1.36 Poor vs Average = 0.9 x 1.79 Expected points total over 38 game season Elite = 25.68 (from poor) + 28.16 (from average) + 13.6 (same level) = 67 points Average = 11.88 (from elite) + 19.04 (from average) + 21.48 (from poor) = 52 points Poor = 7.56 (from elite) + 14.4 (from average) + 13.6 (from poor) = 36 points If we look at those points totals we see they match up very closely with the 4-6th, 10-12th and 16th-18th position places in a typical Premier League season. @SwissRamble has compiled the latest available Premier League wages. If we average the elite\/average\/poor teams we see annual average wages of: Elite = \u00a3266m Average = \u00a3124m Poor = \u00a385m In other words whilst increasing your spend by \u00a340m should be enough to take a Premier League team from the bottom end to midtable reaching the top 6 from midtable takes on average another \u00a3140m each and every year on wages to achieve. The irony of it all is that many Premier League teams who have \u201chad a go\u201d at bridging the gap would almost certainly now be a lot closer to the elite if they had spent the money in a more strategic way. In other words, if they had had a plan, rather than just a dream. How you gonna make a dream come true? I don\u2019t think you should get all your strategic advice from 1950s musicals but South Pacific has some quite pertinent lyrics in the song Happy Talk. You\u2019ve got to have a dream, If you don\u2019t have a dream, How you gonna make a dream come true? You need a vision and a methodology. Take our theoretical mid-table Premier League club. Their vision is to join the elite of the Champions League. They can spend \u00a3140m extra a year on wages and try to bridge the gap that way. But if they can\u2019t? Alternatives What is a football team and why do they succeed on the pitch? It is a collection of very good football players, coached by very good coaches. The elite clubs tend to have very diverse squads of the best players from around the world, signed for high prices, and coached by elite level Head Coaches with \u201cproven\u201d success elsewhere before they took the job at the elite club. This is the typical way elite clubs are set up. They recruit only the best, and usually for high fees and high wages. The lobster and caviar approach of getting the best ingredients prepared by a top chef. This doesn\u2019t mean it is the only way to succeed. Many of these previous blogs have highlighted the teams who have done things differently. The Red Bull model, the Atalanta model. What they all share is they have found a combination of unusual playing styles, alternative sources of players, and player and coach development. Unusual ingredients, prepared well. Summary Turning a mid table club into a permanent member of the elite is likely to\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/mrktinsights.com\/index.php\/2021\/05\/25\/how-much-does-it-cost-to-join-the-elite\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"MRKT Insights - Football Consultancy Services\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2021-05-25T14:04:38+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2021-05-25T14:04:40+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/mrktinsights.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/Screenshot-2021-05-25-15.04.17.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"315\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"216\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Tim Keech\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@insightmrkt\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@insightmrkt\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Tim Keech\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Estimated reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/mrktinsights.com\/index.php\/2021\/05\/25\/how-much-does-it-cost-to-join-the-elite\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/mrktinsights.com\/index.php\/2021\/05\/25\/how-much-does-it-cost-to-join-the-elite\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Tim Keech\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/mrktinsights.com\/#\/schema\/person\/d956f2345ba372416ae11cee92a07873\"},\"headline\":\"How much does it cost to join the elite?\",\"datePublished\":\"2021-05-25T14:04:38+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2021-05-25T14:04:40+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/mrktinsights.com\/index.php\/2021\/05\/25\/how-much-does-it-cost-to-join-the-elite\/\"},\"wordCount\":1076,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/mrktinsights.com\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/mrktinsights.com\/index.php\/2021\/05\/25\/how-much-does-it-cost-to-join-the-elite\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/mrktinsights.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/Screenshot-2021-05-25-15.04.17.png\",\"articleSection\":[\"MRKT Insights\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/mrktinsights.com\/index.php\/2021\/05\/25\/how-much-does-it-cost-to-join-the-elite\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/mrktinsights.com\/index.php\/2021\/05\/25\/how-much-does-it-cost-to-join-the-elite\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/mrktinsights.com\/index.php\/2021\/05\/25\/how-much-does-it-cost-to-join-the-elite\/\",\"name\":\"How much does it cost to join the elite? 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- MRKT Insights - Football Consultancy Services","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/mrktinsights.com\/index.php\/2021\/05\/25\/how-much-does-it-cost-to-join-the-elite\/","og_locale":"en_GB","og_type":"article","og_title":"How much does it cost to join the elite? - MRKT Insights - Football Consultancy Services","og_description":"A quote I\u2019ve recently taken to repeating at every opportunity is from legendary college football coach Bear Bryant: \u201cHave a plan, follow the plan, you\u2019ll be surprised at how successful you\u2019ll be. Most people don\u2019t have a plan, that is why it is easy to beat most folks\u201d But what is a plan in football? It is pretty obvious that the clubs who win things usually have the most money, which enables them to get the best players, and best coaches. If you have the ability to spend like the elite you can join the elite. Every club who has sustainably spent at elite levels has joined the group. This season’s Champions League semi-finals contained Chelsea, PSG, and Manchester City who all followed this model. One of the main criticisms of the proposed European Super League was that it would crush the dreams of teams that thought that they could join the elite one day. Whilst there are many clubs with aspirations to join the elite they don\u2019t have unlimited funds to \u201cbrute force\u201d their way in. It is very easy to increase spending, the Premier League is home to many clubs who thought the following was a plan. Increase spending for a few years. Qualify for Europe. Attract better players. Get back into Europe and increase revenues that allow permanent increase in spending to elite levels. Most of these plans failed after Step 1. Spending an extra \u00a3100m on fees and wages is great fun. The fans love it. You get positive media coverage. Positivity often leads to a short term improvement in results. The problem is even \u00a3500m injected to a mid table Premier League club over a 5 year period doesn\u2019t bridge the spending gap to the elite. It is like turning up to a race against Formula 1 cars in an Aston Martin rather than a Ford Focus. You\u2019ll be faster than you were for sure, you\u2019ll get some admiring glances, but you aren\u2019t going to win the race. Let\u2019s look at the maths behind these statements. How much does it actually cost to go from a mid table team to an elite team In a typical top level league. 6 elite teams 8 average teams 6 poor team Elite teams are 0.5xG better than average teams Average teams are 0xG better than average teams Poor teams are 0.5xG worse than average teams Elite plays 38 fixtures: 10 against other elite teams (0xG difference) 16 against average teams (+0.5 xG difference) 12 against poor teams (+1xG) Average plays 38 fixtures: 12 against elite teams (-0.5 xG) 14 against average teams (0xG) 12 against poor teams (+0.5 xG) Poor plays 38 fixtures 12 against elite (-1 xG) 16 against average (-0.5 xG) 10 against poor (0 xG) 0.25xG chances: Poor = 0.75xG per game Average 1.25 xG per game Elite = 1.75xG per game Expected points Elite vs Poor = 2.14 vs 0.63 Elite vs Average = 1.76 vs 0.99 Same level = 1.36 vs 1.36 Poor vs Average = 0.9 x 1.79 Expected points total over 38 game season Elite = 25.68 (from poor) + 28.16 (from average) + 13.6 (same level) = 67 points Average = 11.88 (from elite) + 19.04 (from average) + 21.48 (from poor) = 52 points Poor = 7.56 (from elite) + 14.4 (from average) + 13.6 (from poor) = 36 points If we look at those points totals we see they match up very closely with the 4-6th, 10-12th and 16th-18th position places in a typical Premier League season. @SwissRamble has compiled the latest available Premier League wages. If we average the elite\/average\/poor teams we see annual average wages of: Elite = \u00a3266m Average = \u00a3124m Poor = \u00a385m In other words whilst increasing your spend by \u00a340m should be enough to take a Premier League team from the bottom end to midtable reaching the top 6 from midtable takes on average another \u00a3140m each and every year on wages to achieve. The irony of it all is that many Premier League teams who have \u201chad a go\u201d at bridging the gap would almost certainly now be a lot closer to the elite if they had spent the money in a more strategic way. In other words, if they had had a plan, rather than just a dream. How you gonna make a dream come true? I don\u2019t think you should get all your strategic advice from 1950s musicals but South Pacific has some quite pertinent lyrics in the song Happy Talk. You\u2019ve got to have a dream, If you don\u2019t have a dream, How you gonna make a dream come true? You need a vision and a methodology. Take our theoretical mid-table Premier League club. Their vision is to join the elite of the Champions League. They can spend \u00a3140m extra a year on wages and try to bridge the gap that way. But if they can\u2019t? Alternatives What is a football team and why do they succeed on the pitch? It is a collection of very good football players, coached by very good coaches. The elite clubs tend to have very diverse squads of the best players from around the world, signed for high prices, and coached by elite level Head Coaches with \u201cproven\u201d success elsewhere before they took the job at the elite club. This is the typical way elite clubs are set up. They recruit only the best, and usually for high fees and high wages. The lobster and caviar approach of getting the best ingredients prepared by a top chef. This doesn\u2019t mean it is the only way to succeed. Many of these previous blogs have highlighted the teams who have done things differently. The Red Bull model, the Atalanta model. What they all share is they have found a combination of unusual playing styles, alternative sources of players, and player and coach development. Unusual ingredients, prepared well. 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